Best CS2 Cases to Open by Expected Value
44 cases
Every Counter-Strike 2 weapon case we can price honestly, ranked by how much of your opening cost you statistically get back. EV multiplies Valve’s published tier odds by wear-weighted median market prices (90/10 StatTrak blend, Dopplers averaged across phases), then subtracts nothing — the cost column already shows the case plus the $2.49 key.
Every case returns less than it costs — that is the design, not bad luck. The ranking tells you which case burns the least per opening and what its chase drop is worth. Open a case to see its full tier-by-tier breakdown.
Top 44
Updated 20 h ago Case Opening cost EV vs cost EV Return
#1 
eSports 2013 Winter Case Top drop: Karambit (Fade) · $1,952.69 EV $8.43 · Return 65% $13.05 -35% $8.43 65% #2 
Sealed Dead Hand Terminal Top drop: Sport Gloves (Ultra Violent) · $1,060.97 EV $1.76 · Return 63% $2.78 -37% $1.76 63% #3 
CS:GO Weapon Case 2 Top drop: Karambit (Fade) · $1,952.69 EV $12.21 · Return 58% $21.03 -42% $12.21 58% #4 
Operation Wildfire Case Top drop: Bowie Knife (Crimson Web) · $1,328.35 EV $2.87 · Return 57% $5.01 -43% $2.87 57% #5 
Operation Phoenix Weapon Case Top drop: Karambit (Fade) · $1,952.69 EV $3.25 · Return 56% $5.75 -44% $3.25 56% #6 
Prisma Case Top drop: Talon Knife (Doppler) · $992.26 EV $1.99 · Return 56% $3.55 -44% $1.99 56% #7 
CS:GO Weapon Case 3 Top drop: Karambit (Fade) · $1,952.69 EV $8.12 · Return 55% $14.65 -45% $8.12 55% #8 
Operation Vanguard Weapon Case Top drop: Karambit (Fade) · $1,952.69 EV $3.75 · Return 55% $6.78 -45% $3.75 55% #9 
Chroma 2 Case Top drop: Karambit (Doppler) · $1,695.54 EV $3.26 · Return 55% $5.90 -45% $3.26 55% #10 
Gamma Case Top drop: Karambit (Gamma Doppler) · $2,178.23 EV $2.79 · Return 53% $5.23 -47% $2.79 53% #11 
Gamma 2 Case Top drop: Karambit (Gamma Doppler) · $2,178.23 EV $2.78 · Return 53% $5.24 -47% $2.78 53% #12 
Glove Case Top drop: Sport Gloves (Hedge Maze) · $4,655.68 EV $6.13 · Return 53% $11.67 -47% $6.13 53% #13 
eSports 2014 Summer Case Top drop: Karambit (Fade) · $1,952.69 EV $6.75 · Return 52% $13.01 -48% $6.75 52% #14 
Shattered Web Case Top drop: Skeleton Knife (Fade) · $570.82 EV $3.28 · Return 51% $6.39 -49% $3.28 51% #15 
Revolver Case Top drop: Karambit (Fade) · $1,952.69 EV $2.54 · Return 51% $5.00 -49% $2.54 51% #16 
Chroma 3 Case Top drop: Karambit (Doppler) · $1,695.54 EV $2.80 · Return 50% $5.61 -50% $2.80 50% #17 
Operation Hydra Case Top drop: Sport Gloves (Hedge Maze) · $4,655.68 EV $14.12 · Return 49% $28.65 -51% $14.12 49% #18 
Chroma Case Top drop: Karambit (Doppler) · $1,695.54 EV $3.42 · Return 49% $6.97 -51% $3.42 49% #19 
Prisma 2 Case Top drop: Talon Knife (Doppler) · $992.26 EV $1.69 · Return 48% $3.50 -52% $1.69 48% #20 
Falchion Case Top drop: Falchion Knife (Fade) · $253.19 EV $1.88 · Return 48% $3.90 -52% $1.88 48% #21 
Winter Offensive Weapon Case Top drop: Karambit (Fade) · $1,952.69 EV $5.49 · Return 48% $11.42 -52% $5.49 48% #22 
Spectrum Case Top drop: Butterfly Knife (Doppler) · $2,989.23 EV $2.72 · Return 48% $5.70 -52% $2.72 48% #23 
Operation Broken Fang Case Top drop: Sport Gloves (Nocts) · $636.59 EV $3.59 · Return 47% $7.59 -53% $3.59 47% #24 
Shadow Case Top drop: Shadow Daggers (Fade) · $200.36 EV $1.87 · Return 47% $3.96 -53% $1.87 47% #25 
Horizon Case Top drop: Talon Knife (Fade) · $905.52 EV $1.85 · Return 47% $3.94 -53% $1.85 47% #26 
Operation Breakout Weapon Case Top drop: Butterfly Knife (Fade) · $2,449.81 EV $4.39 · Return 46% $9.54 -54% $4.39 46% #27 
Huntsman Weapon Case Top drop: Huntsman Knife (Fade) · $356.18 EV $4.35 · Return 46% $9.55 -54% $4.35 46% #28 
Danger Zone Case Top drop: Talon Knife (Fade) · $905.52 EV $1.55 · Return 45% $3.48 -55% $1.55 45% #29 
Spectrum 2 Case Top drop: Butterfly Knife (Doppler) · $2,989.23 EV $2.37 · Return 44% $5.35 -56% $2.37 44% #30 
Snakebite Case Top drop: Sport Gloves (Nocts) · $636.59 EV $1.24 · Return 44% $2.81 -56% $1.24 44% #31 
Dreams & Nightmares Case Top drop: Butterfly Knife (Gamma Doppler) · $1,990.99 EV $1.38 · Return 40% $3.42 -60% $1.38 40% #32 
Operation Riptide Case Top drop: Butterfly Knife (Gamma Doppler) · $1,990.99 EV $3.86 · Return 40% $9.70 -60% $3.86 40% #33 
Gallery Case Top drop: Kukri Knife (Fade) · $178.73 EV $1.21 · Return 39% $3.09 -61% $1.21 39% #34 
Fever Case Top drop: Skeleton Knife (Doppler) · $737.13 EV $1.18 · Return 38% $3.08 -62% $1.18 38% #35 
CS20 Case Top drop: Classic Knife (Fade) · $306.03 EV $1.26 · Return 38% $3.29 -62% $1.26 38% #36 
eSports 2013 Case Top drop: Karambit (Fade) · $1,952.69 EV $15.79 · Return 35% $44.78 -65% $15.79 35% #37 
Sealed Genesis Terminal Top drop: AK-47 (The Oligarch) · $59.46 EV $0.892 · Return 35% $2.55 -65% $0.892 35% #38 
Recoil Case Top drop: Sport Gloves (Nocts) · $636.59 EV $0.943 · Return 35% $2.70 -65% $0.943 35% #39 
Operation Bravo Case Top drop: Karambit (Fade) · $1,952.69 EV $18.73 · Return 34% $54.81 -66% $18.73 34% #40 
CS:GO Weapon Case Top drop: Karambit (Fade) · $1,952.69 EV $34.78 · Return 33% $105.62 -67% $34.78 33% #41 
Clutch Case Top drop: Sport Gloves (Vice) · $695.68 EV $0.958 · Return 33% $2.92 -67% $0.958 33% #42 
Revolution Case Top drop: Sport Gloves (Vice) · $695.68 EV $0.856 · Return 32% $2.64 -68% $0.856 32% #43 
Fracture Case Top drop: Skeleton Knife (Fade) · $570.82 EV $0.868 · Return 30% $2.87 -70% $0.868 30% #44 
Kilowatt Case Top drop: Kukri Knife (Fade) · $178.73 EV $0.712 · Return 27% $2.59 -73% $0.712 27% EV = Valve tier odds × wear-weighted median market prices (90/10 StatTrak blend, Doppler averaged across phases) · Opening cost = case median + $2.49 key · How the math works → · How we price →